Rating

Credit ratings provide an independent assessment of an organisation’s financial strength and its capacity to meet its financial obligations. For an insurance organisation such as ATIDI, they are an important external reference point for clients, lenders, investors, reinsurers, shareholders and other partners assessing the organisation’s creditworthiness and financial resilience.

Ratings are opinions rather than guarantees. Moody’s defines credit ratings in terms of the relative future credit risk associated with meeting contractual financial obligations, while S&P similarly describes ratings as opinions of relative creditworthiness.

For ATIDI, independent ratings are particularly relevant because its business involves assuming and mitigating credit and political risks over multi-year periods. A strong rating helps demonstrate to counterparties that ATIDI has the financial capacity, capital, liquidity, risk-management framework and external risk protection necessary to support the commitments it makes.

ATIDI currently has strong investment-grade ratings from both S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Ratings.

The two agencies use different rating scales and methodologies, so the symbols are not intended to be read as mechanically identical. Both ratings nevertheless place ATIDI within the agencies’ investment-grade “A” rating categories. Moody’s describes obligations in its A category as upper-medium grade and subject to low credit risk.

Importantly, Moody’s Negative outlook relates to the potential future direction of the rating; ATIDI’s A2 rating itself has not been downgraded.

A credit rating is an agency’s current opinion of an organisation’s creditworthiness or financial strength.

A rating outlook is forward-looking. It indicates the agency’s view of the possible or likely direction of the rating over the medium term. Moody’s defines an outlook as an opinion regarding the likely direction of a rating over the medium term, while S&P describes an outlook as indicating the potential direction of a long-term rating over an intermediate period — typically six months to two years. Moody’s does not define the medium term as a fixed period, although it generally follows up on an outlook change within around 12–18 months.

An outlook therefore provides context around risks and trends that the rating agency is monitoring. It is not itself a different credit rating, and it does not mean that a future rating change is certain. S&P expressly notes that an outlook change does not make a subsequent rating change inevitable.

Moody’s current insurance financial strength rating for ATIDI remains A2. The Negative designation is the outlook attached to that rating, not a lower rating.

The Negative outlook signals that Moody’s sees factors that could place downward pressure on the rating if they persist or worsen — principally difficulties recovering claims in full from some member sovereigns and the implications this could have for ATIDI’s preferred creditor status.

At the same time, Moody’s explicitly recognises mitigating strengths, including ATIDI’s strong capitalisation, profitability and extensive reinsurance protection, which it expects to limit the financial impact of the current recovery challenges. The 19 May 2026 Moody’s credit opinion also states that the publication itself does not announce a credit rating action.

A useful distinction: A2 / Negative means the A2 rating remains in place, but Moody’s is signalling greater downside risk around its future direction.

ATIDI’s ratings support confidence in the organisation as a long-term risk-sharing partner. This is relevant to the governments, lenders, investors and corporates whose transactions ATIDI supports, as well as to the international reinsurers that provide substantial additional underwriting capacity.

The latest assessments continue to identify significant underlying financial strengths. Moody’s highlights ATIDI’s good market position in Africa, strong capitalisation and liquidity relative to insured exposures, conservative investment portfolio and strong relationships with global reinsurers. S&P similarly points to ATIDI’s robust capital position, strong reinsurance protection and statutory ability to seek reimbursement from member states for non-commercial claims.

A strong rating therefore contributes to ATIDI’s organisational credibility and supports its ability to fulfil its development mandate: facilitating trade and investment in Africa by providing credit and political risk insurance.

The ratings are an external assessment of ATIDI’s capacity to honour its financial commitments. They do not determine which transactions ATIDI can undertake, but they are an important indicator of financial strength for organisations considering whether to transfer or share risk with ATIDI.

Both agencies continue to identify ATIDI’s capitalisation and risk mitigation as significant strengths. S&P assesses ATIDI’s financial risk profile as “very strong” and notes that its statutory reimbursement mechanism for non-commercial claims helps preserve capital and reduce earnings volatility; it also assesses ATIDI’s liquidity as robust. Moody’s similarly says ATIDI’s capital adequacy is supported by low net exposures relative to its capital base and substantial reinsurance protection.

These characteristics matter because ATIDI operates in markets where sovereign and corporate credit risks can be comparatively high. The ratings assess both those underlying risks and the protections ATIDI has put in place to manage them.

A strong credit rating reinforces ATIDI’s standing as a credible risk-sharing counterparty and helps provide reassurance to stakeholders regarding its ability to honour insured obligations.

This is particularly important to ATIDI’s model because it works closely with lenders, investors, governments, development finance organisations and reinsurers. Moody’s notes that ATIDI’s relationships with member sovereigns and development finance organisations strengthen its market reach, while its relationships with leading global reinsurers provide significant underwriting capacity and risk mitigation.

S&P also notes that reinsurance materially reduces ATIDI’s net exposure: as at 31 December 2025, gross exposure of approximately USD 9.2 billion was reduced to around USD 1.0 billion of net exposure after risk sharing.

The rating should therefore be viewed as part of a broader financial-strength proposition encompassing capital, liquidity, underwriting discipline, reinsurance, shareholder relationships and ATIDI’s multilateral status.

ATIDI has maintained a long record of investment-grade ratings.

The overall trajectory is one of sustained investment-grade strength, including a Moody’s upgrade in 2024, alongside more recent scrutiny of sovereign recoveries and preferred creditor protections.

The different outlooks principally reflect different analytical methodologies, weightings and judgements about how current sovereign-recovery risks could affect ATIDI over time. They should not be interpreted as one agency having identified financial distress that the other has overlooked.

S&P (Outlook: Stable) focuses on ATIDI’s very strong financial risk profile, prudent reinsurance usage and statutory subrogation rights. It views reimbursement delays from countries like Zambia (related to the G20 Common Framework debt restructuring) as manageable arrears events within ATIDI’s substantial capital buffer, and expects ATIDI to manage sovereign claims effectively while continuing its growth.

Moody’s (Outlook: Negative) emphasises the macroeconomic headwinds facing some African sovereigns. Its negative outlook reflects concerns that complex debt restructurings under the G20 Common Framework have created delays in enforcing ATIDI’s Preferred Creditor Status (PCS). Moody’s notes that while ATIDI’s financial loss exposure is limited by strong capitalisation and reinsurance, delayed recoveries temporarily weaken its business profile.

There are also differences within S&P’s own assessment: it revised ATIDI’s enterprise risk profile from strong to adequate, while at the same time revising its financial risk profile from strong to very strong. Together these continue to support an ‘a’ stand-alone credit profile and an A rating.

In simple terms, both agencies recognise the same broad area of risk — delayed sovereign recoveries — while placing different weight on that risk relative to ATIDI’s capital, reinsurance, profitability and other financial protections.

No. Neither rating agency has suggested that the latest outlooks alter ATIDI’s mandate as a pan-African organisation facilitating trade and investment through credit and political risk insurance. Moody’s continues to describe ATIDI as a pan-African development finance organisation established by international treaty to facilitate trade and investment into Africa.

The ratings do, however, highlight areas that require continued management attention. Moody’s notes that ATIDI has been adapting new-business underwriting in response to challenges around sovereign preferred creditor status — including prioritising political risk insurance and risk-sharing with multilateral development banks, strengthening debt-sustainability analysis, and increasing diversification through corporate credit-risk insurance. Similarly, S&P expects ATIDI to maintain prudent reinsurance and conservative underwriting while continuing to strengthen managerial and risk functions as the business grows.

These are risk-management and portfolio-management responses within ATIDI’s existing mandate, rather than a change to the organisation’s purpose or business model.

Preferred creditor status (PCS) is an important protection associated with ATIDI’s multilateral structure and its relationship with member states.

Under ATIDI’s treaty and participation arrangements, member states are contractually required to reimburse ATIDI for eligible claims that ATIDI pays in respect of sovereign and related sub-sovereign exposures within 360 days. Moody’s notes that these arrangements give ATIDI priority relative to other creditors and apply to approximately 75% of its insured portfolio.

This protection is important because ATIDI operates in markets where sovereign and political risks can be significant. Recoveries from member states, together with ATIDI’s capital and extensive reinsurance arrangements, have historically helped limit the ultimate financial impact of claims.

Preferred creditor status does not mean that every claim is necessarily recovered immediately or without delay. The current rating discussions concern the timing and effectiveness of recoveries in certain complex sovereign restructuring situations. ATIDI continues to recognise and rely on its contractual rights, while working within the broader framework of sovereign debt restructurings.

Yes. The current ratings discussion should not be interpreted as meaning that ATIDI has failed to obtain preferred creditor status. Moody’s expressly recognises ATIDI’s contractual preferred creditor status with member sovereigns and regards it as an important mitigant of the risks in ATIDI’s portfolio.

The issue being considered by the rating agencies is therefore not whether ATIDI has PCS, but how consistently and promptly those protections are applied in certain complex sovereign restructuring situations.